![]() If Bryce Harper is worth only a fraction of the hype he’s received, he’ll be well worth whatever the record signing money he receives.Ī.) Yes, he’s worth it. Sure, there is a good bit of risk involved, but when you glance at the overall picture, the #1 overall picks on an average have been worth their scratch. So while handing out a bonus of $15 million puts a good sized dent in that surplus, that’s still a considerable surplus left over.įor all the moralizing and hem-hawing that #1 draft picks are vastly overpaid, I’d argue that they are a relative value. If we estimate that a player worth 1.6 WAR per season will earn about $13 million before they hit free agency (factoring in the 40%, 60%, 80% arbitration estimates and league minimum pay), we find that said player is worth a surplus value of around $26 million. We are talking about just 40 players, so standard deviation for the group is 1.8 WAR per season, in case you were wondering. Averaging all the 1st picks together, you get 9.5 WAR, or 1.6 WAR per season. Now getting beyond the fun, superlative stuff, 45% of the #1 overall picks have produced nothing or next to nothing in the big leagues. If Harper can come even close to any of these select few, he’ll be worth his bonus many times over. And of course, they were all really, really good. It’s attention-grabbing to me that all of these hitters came out of high school. Here’s the Top 5 1-1 picks of all time, and what their production would have been worth on today’s free agent market.Īlex Rodriguez SS High Schoolē7.5Ė.3đ53.8 I’m using Rally’s Historical WAR database to get their WAR totals. Again, I’m looking only at the player’s first seasons in the majors, not when they are free agent eligible. I’m looking just at the players who have played long enough to be judged to this point, so no Strasburg, David Price, Justin Upton, Tim Beckham or Luke Hochevar. To answer that question I looked at all the 1-1 picks since the history of the draft. ![]() While it seems astounding to us average Joes that a kid not old enough to vote would receive such big dollars, is it really that nuts for a player drafted 1st overall to get that sort of money? (What? Heyman leaking bonus demands of a Boras client? That’s shocking!) Harper, who is advised by none other than Scott Boras, is rumored to be seeking even more money than Strasburg, according to Jon Heyman. The Nationals already doled out a record signing of $15.67 million to Strasburg last year, raising some eyebrows among fans and analysts alike, but it was a far cry from the possible Dice-K numbers that he was rumored to be initially seeking.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |